How can we Secure a Sustainable Climate Future?
Minimal time is left – 2024 data sounds the alarm
2023-2024 held another record-breaking series of months for global average temperatures. By June 2024, a full 11 months in a row saw this global average reach, breach, and rise beyond the 1.5°C threshold. Record-breaking monthly heat averages in specific regions and countries were a near-constant factor across much of the world.
Overall, Jan-Sept 2024 global average temperature represented 1.54 (±0.13) °C above pre-industrial levels. As 2024 draws to a close, it is on track to be the hottest year since records began. 40+°C heatwaves in Europe, devastating wildfires in South America and a deluge of flooding disasters worldwide all reinforce the tangible and deadly impact of these sustained rises in global temperatures.
What timeline should we be aiming for?
While the global scientific community continues to debate the timeframes involved in either securing or failing to meet our targets of limiting global warming to 1.5°C =, there is broad consensus when it comes to the optimal outcomes on moving from a hydrocarbon-dependent energy industry to a fully clean energy future.
It breaks down into three key targets:
Triple the world’s combined renewable energy capacity to at least 11,000GW by 2030.
Phase out fossil fuel usage in energy production from 60% to 30% of global energy production mix by 2030.
Achieve net-zero emissions across the global energy sector by 2050.
What is needed to get us there?
Determining whether whole nations, regions, and the broader global energy industry can decarbonise within these set timelines is too complex to predict with sufficient accuracy. Such predictions must routinely be readdressed to fit the constantly shifting realities of both the political and economic spheres.
However, as with the above targets, there is also consensus across the academic and business communities regarding the broader pathways to attain them. For each pathway, we assess its feasibility, considering the current trajectories, political promises and potential obstacles involved.
Tripling Global Renewable Energy Capacity
The last 14 months or so, saw over 200 countries pledge to triple the world’s (then) renewable capacity up to at least 11,000GW by 2030, a critical enabler of reducing global emissions by 43% by this date. This outcome envisions solar and wind representing around 90% of all new additions.
Despite limited, temporary setbacks in areas as varied as material and component shortfalls and funding shortages for large-scale projects, the broader picture on scaling up renewable capacity worldwide remains bright.
The latest report from IRENA puts global efforts on track for a 2.7-times increase in global renewable energy capacity, by adding 5,500GW. While this is still short of the tripling goal, the agency says that this estimate could easily be revised upwards with more ambitious planning.
Like ending deforestation, the environmental imperative for the global clean energy transition is clear. Moreover, the economic case is being made more strongly every month, with every new installation and with every new per-unit price drop. Wind and solar PV are already the cheapest options to add new electricity generation in almost every country, making them the go-to choice in practically every scenario.
Success reinforces success, and nowhere is this truer than with renewables. China and India, the emerging economic superpowers, are leading the charge and both have plenty to gain by securing global leadership in this new energy frontier. The former will account for 60% of all capacity installed worldwide between now and 2030, while the latter is growing its renewable capacity at the fastest rate across all major economies.
Phasing Out Fossil Fuels
As renewables scale up, coal, oil and gas must wind down. The age of hydrocarbon dependency for energy production will reduce, but to meet the necessary 2030 and 2050 deadlines, more needs to be done globally.
Accordingly, the likelihood of this integral part of the global energy production being entirely phased out within the next five years is in question. The International Energy Agency believes that a more viable target, one that could be vital in keeping the 1.5°C target alive, is that this proportion halves from 60% to 30% by 2030, with renewables scaling up sufficiently to cover the gap.
Achieving a Net-Zero Energy Industry by 2050
As mentioned previously, any prediction made about the state of an entire global industry 25 years into the future can only ever hope to deal in generalities. However, there remains plenty to be hopeful about, even if there are substantial challenges to overcome. Greater ambition is needed, combined with faster and firmer action. Whether or not this occurs will depend greatly on three major factors: attracting more investment capital, oil and gas companies’ participation, and unlocking the potential of green hydrogen.
Capital remains key. Global investments across all energy transition technologies reached a record high of $1.3 trillion in 2022. Politics can play a central role in galvanising greater investment in the energy transition, with tax breaks and regulatory frameworks designed to better clarify the rules on previously unclear markets such as carbon credits. Similarly, greater public funding of energy transition technologies and projects would help to build private investors’ confidence in this area, allowing them to “follow the money”, and give stronger signals that public policy is to back the transition.
Similarly, O&G companies are already a critical piece of the puzzle. A recent McKinsey report outlines how they are perfectly poised to play a meaningful role in the energy systems transformation. They have the expertise, the resources, the risk appetite and the increasing pressure of regulators and customers to consider, as they look to decarbonise their own operations while investing directly into greener energy production methods.
As for green hydrogen, this nascent industry is still so relatively new that it is difficult to accurately map its current demand potential, let alone its growth trajectory for the next two and a half decades. However, observers across the energy industry and beyond agree that it is likely to play a pivotal role, given the speed of technological innovation boosting its efficiency and ubiquity levels. IRENA’s latest data suggests that if the energy industry can achieve net zero by 2050, 94% of hydrogen will be renewables-based. If this occurs, it will mean the relatively rapid development of a vastly impactive new industry based on clean energy production, storage and transport that is connected to global markets with sufficient logistical efficiency. In other words, a game-changing prospect for a clean energy future.
Supporting the Change – The Role of the World Future Energy Summit
Across these three targets, the interplay of business, technology and politics can be seen. Even the most clear-cut cases of environmental expediency must be backed by the economic feasibility to cut through the priorities that people and governments hold today, allowing us to strive for a sustainable tomorrow.
This is what makes the World Future Energy Summit and sustainability-based events like it so integral to the global vision. It is a nexus for decision makers across the political, business and academic spectrum to come together, learn from one another and collectively forge a path towards clean energy goals. As a platform for supporting this change, its role can be separated into three parts.
Showcasing cutting-edge technologies: The World Future Energy Summit routinely attracts over 400 top-tier exhibitors every year, who bring with them the very latest technological solutions designed to secure a clean energy future.
Providing a Business Gateway: The Middle East is poised to be a regional hub and exporter of renewable energy production capacity and expertise. This makes it immensely attractive as a market expansion prospect for clean energy players across the world, and the World Future Energy Summit is the ideal platform for exploring and familiarising themselves with the current regional business landscape. Providing access to global players to network, seize new opportunities and ink deals is integral to the rapid upscaling of renewables worldwide.
Supporting Sector and Inter-Sector Collaboration: Alongside billions of dollars-worth of deals inked very year, each edition hosts engaging conferences, startup support, sector policy debates and disclosures, all with the explicit goal of fostering partnerships between and across every set of stakeholders in the global energy ecosystem.
All three parts of this broader role are closely interconnected. Developing world-changing ideas and technological concepts isn’t enough; they must be evaluated, recognised, supported, implemented and upscaled. This can only be achieved in a rapid and equitable manner when every part of the value chain is working in harmony. The World Future Energy Summit aims to facilitate that, by creating a platform to bring all interested parties together, allowing them to find the right pathway ahead.
As we strive to realise a shared clean energy future, this kind of transparent, equitable partnership is needed more than ever.
