AI can power Brazil’s G20 vision
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G20 Summit

AI can power Brazil’s G20 vision

Jessica Rapson

As summit host, Brazil can leverage the G20 Compliance Simulator to push for vital reforms in global governance

As Brazil prepares to host the 2024 G20 Rio Summit, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has identified the reform of global governance institutions as a key priority. This focus on reforming international bodies, such as the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, underscores Brazil’s vision for a more equitable global order. However, achieving meaningful reform requires G20 members to adhere to their summit commitments, a challenge where compliance has historically been uneven.

To ensure success, Brazil can leverage the insights provided by the G20 Compliance Simulator, a tool powered by artificial intelligence designed to predict and improve members’ commitment fulfilment.

G20 compliance with summit commitments

G20 members have historically struggled to fully comply with the commitments made at summits. On average, only 54% of G20 commitments are met in full, but compliance varies significantly depending on the issue area. The G20 Compliance Simulator reveals that commitments tied to international organisations – such as the World Bank, IMF and UN – perform slightly better than those that are not. Specifically, full compliance for commitments referring to international organisations is predicted to be 36.4%, compared to 31.7% for other commitments.

This marginal improvement can be attributed to the high visibility and shared interests in global governance reforms, which often involve international cooperation and common goals. However, these figures still leave significant room for improvement, especially considering the central role that these institutions play in shaping the global economic and political landscape.

Predictions on commitments related to international organisations

Among G20 members, the European Union and the United Kingdom are predicted to perform the best on commitments related to international organisations, with compliance rates expected between 50% and 60% (see figure 1). In contrast, South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, India, Mexico and Russia are predicted to see lower compliance rates, between 20% and 30%, with South Africa at the lower end, predicted to meet 10%–20% of its commitments.

Compliance related to international organisations is predicted to be highest for commitments related to development, financial regulation and macroeconomic policy, where compliance rates are expected to be as high as 70% or 80%. Conversely, commitments about international organisations that involve gender, infrastructure, and migration and refugees are predicted to have lower compliance rates, between 20% and 40%. These areas require more concerted efforts and Brazil, as the host, can play a pivotal role in driving discussions towards stronger accountability mechanisms.

Reforming institutions

To improve compliance with commitments related to international organisations, Brazil can focus on several strategic actions, informed by the insights from the G20 Compliance Simulator:

  1. Strengthen the use of binding language. Commitments that use strong, binding language have consistently higher compliance rates. Brazil should advocate for clear, enforceable terms in commitments related to reforming the IMF, World Bank and UN. Strengthening the language of commitments ensures that they are viewed not merely as aspirational but as concrete objectives that require follow-through.
  2. Increase ministerial meetings on governance reform. The G20 Compliance Simulator shows that holding more G20 ministerial meetings, before and after the summit, can significantly boost compliance. For example, when a ministerial meeting focused on the same issue as the commitment is held before the summit, compliance is predicted to rise to 73%, and to 70% when held afterward. Ministerial meetings focused on global governance reform could bring together finance, foreign affairs and development ministers to align their priorities to support the summit – a recommendation that South Africa should consider for its 2025 G20 presidency.
  3. Promote collaboration among high-performing members. The EU and the UK are predicted to have the highest compliance rates on commitments involving international organisations. Brazil can encourage these members to take leadership roles in global governance reform by sharing best practices with lower-performing countries such as South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, India, Mexico and Russia. Targeted diplomatic engagement and better resource allocation for lower income members could foster greater commitment to meeting the summit’s objectives.
  4. Address challenges in low compliance areas. Brazil should recognise that commitments related to gender, infrastructure, and migration and refugees are areas with historically lower compliance rates when linked to international organisations. These sectors may require special attention during the summit, including stronger monitoring mechanisms and more detailed action plans.

As host of the 2024 G20 summit in Rio, Brazil is uniquely positioned to push for meaningful reforms in global governance institutions including the IMF, World Bank and UN. By leveraging the insights provided by the G20 Compliance Simulator, Brazil – and South Africa in 2025 – can guide the G20 towards structuring commitments that are more likely to be fulfilled.

The G20 Compliance Simulator can be accessed at g20-utoronto.shinyapps. io/compliance-tool/. Full data and code are available at github.com/rapsoj/ g20-compliance. If you have any questions about the G20 Compliance Simulator, please contact g20@utoronto.ca